Drain problem in Cork City - Titan, Ceres and Dwarf planets

 Hi, Yes I though the Titan thing was good. As for the moons… well, it’s understandable. Our generation called Pluto a planet – the category of dwarf planets didn’t exist then, and all those moons are simply too much to remember. 

Titan is one of several places which look well worth investigating. In a perverse way, all these moons and some of the dwarf planets: Ceres and even Pluto, may make better targets for human occupation than planets. They are deep space but with a surface and no gravity well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceres_(dwarf_planet) Actually, the Solar System is looking more interesting than it has, but not in the ways or in the places we expected.

And… it hasn’t been a good week for me, and though I’m through it ok, I may be distracted suddenly for a while. 

On Wednesday evening, Noreen got a phone call from Margaret to say “there’s sewage in the yard” of our cottage down in Cork City. A photo was enough to confirm the issue and in the time it took to collect a few tools (overalls, gloves, drain rods…) and a change of clothing I was on my way (40 miles to Cork City). 

By 01:30 I had the mess cleared and had established that while the loo and shower-room drains were working satisfactorily, the gulley for the kitchen (which was the source of the effluent), was blocked. There had been things in that effluent which had not come direct from any kitchen and certainly not ours, including an almost complete sausage! No, I do not know what variety; it was like a length of garlic sausage with a reddish skin. The mess cleared up and it being possible to use the loo (but not the kitchen sink) I washed and went to bed.  

The following morning, Noreen (who fortunately is on vacation from school) was down at 09:00. While I started trying to clear the blockage, Noreen started on the internet and phone. In not so short order she went through: Irish Water, Cork City Council, 2 drains companies and even the Gardai (police, because we needed to get access to the house next door). Everybody was very helpful, but there were issues all along the way. Meanwhile, I bailed and “plunged” and groped.

By a miracle, “plunging”, persistence, groping in the darkness and with the use of chemicals, there was water movement by about 15:00 and by 16:00 I had the gulley draining in a satisfactory way. We had managed to resolve the immediate crisis for about EUR 30 on parking, EUR 20 on drain cleaner and whatever we spend on petrol. After I’d demonstrated the results, I washed up, we all shared some tea and a bun, and Noreen and Margaret went home, while I remained, to enjoy a TV dinner and a single can of strong cider. I went to bed early and I slept like a log.

The following day, I did a survey of my drains and the area. Compared to the previous night I felt amazingly relaxed. In the early afternoon I had a visit from someone from our preferred drains company. The bloke explained that we had two issues: 1) No rodding/jetting access and 2) No vent to relieve pressure from the sewer. The solution is going to have to be removing the loo pan and using the access into the sewer for inspection with an endoscope and then digging up the yard (guided by  the endoscope results), and then jetting and fitting a small inspection chamber. Really what is behind all this, is that I have a house which is over a hundred years old and the foul drainage has developed by a process of accretion.

I’ve fixed the immediate crisis, but now I have to take control of the project (because that is what it has become). Of course, the screws holding down the pan are badly rusted. I’m going to investigate removing the bowl but I’m reconciled to hiring a plumber and I know that the usual solution in these cases is to break the bowl – it’s easier and cheaper. If I get someone else to do the work, I will get them to fit easily removable screws and a service valve on the cistern at the same time (to save the need for draining the cold water tank in the future).

I’ve now got an excruciatingly large scale map (stolen from the Irish Gas website) of the relevant houses, and the results of my survey. Tomorrow evening I will investigate the loo pan and then we will move on from there. 

I may be busy for a few days…

Cheers, 

Tom

Trying to stay out of the brown. Onward to Mars, or Titan!   

(Originally posted 17th June 2021)

From: pink582 [mailto:pink582@btinternet.com] 

Sent: 10 June 2021 10:54

To: Tom Gillies

Subject: Re: Titan

Hello Tom,

thanks for doc about Titan, I may watch others in the series. When it comes to the moons I get a bit hazy....when there were only a handful of moons knowing their names seem to make sense but when you get 53 confirmed moons plus 29 other likely candidates....well I lost the plot.

two things did come out of the doc for me...1) the magnetic field of Saturn itself is strong enough to protect the atm of Titan from solar wind for 90% of the time...I also guess the solar wind is less dense out there.

2) very thick atm...if you want a fast trip to Saturn slowing down won't be so difficult...reference ballute idea in 2010 movie.....may be you could rig a past both through Saturn and Titan.

All the best

Jeff

------ Original Message ------

From: "Tom Gillies" <gillies.tom@googlemail.com>

To: "Jeff Pink" <pink582@btinternet.com>

Sent: Wednesday, 9 Jun, 2021 At 19:32

Subject: Titan 

I’m sure you will be interested in this, and I’m going to check some figures tomorrow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy4uyHVUYA 

Regards,

Tom 

Flying not Floating

 

Flying not Floating

The simplest formula for calculating lift that I can find is:

 ρ v² S C_L

Where:

·         L is the lift force

·         ρ is the fluid density – originally of “air”

·         v is the velocity or “true airspeed”

·         S is the planform (projected) wing area

·         C_L is the lift coefficient at the desired angle of attack, Mach Number and Reynolds Number

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lift_(force)

(The representation of the equation got mangled and I can't be bothered to fix it)

Typical value of C_L lift coefficient is 1.5

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/lift-coefficient

If I assume that I want Lift force equal to the downward force, then that means the Lift I require is (Mass * local Gravity).

Do some algebra and rearrange the equation to get (looks like super and sub-scripts don’t work properly in equations with fractions):

The first term is a constant for the body in question, the second term is the inverse of the density and the third term is the inverse square of the “airspeed” velocity. Everything varies as you would expect.

Physical Properties on various bodies:

Body:	Gravity (m/s2)	Atm Density (kg/m3):	Lift for 1 kg (N):	Temp (deg C):	Atm Pressure (Bar):	Notes:
Venus	8.87	65	8.87	464	92
Earth (Air)	9.81	1.2	9.81	20	1	*
Earth (Water)	9.81	1000	9.81	20	1	*
Mars	3.72	0.020	3.72	-63	0.06
Jupiter	24.8	1.2	24.8	-70	10	*
Saturn	10.44	1.2	10.44	-139	1	*
Titan	1.35	53	1.35	-179	1.5

 

Notes:

(*)          Atmospheric density on a gas giant can be anything you choose it to be, depending on altitude/depth.

Calculate the “factor” for all the different bodies

Body:	L/CL:	Inverse Density:	“Factor”:
Venus	5.91	0.154	0.910
Earth (Air)	6.54	0.83
Earth (Water)	6.54	0.001
Mars	2.48	50
Jupiter	16.53	0.83
Saturn	6.96	0.83
Titan	0.90	0.94

 

 (Originally 17th July 2021)

Gateways and Boundaries

Do you like mysterious doors or gateways, maybe even to ways to other dimensions? Of course you do, everybody does! Here's a little tale for you. Of course it's all true, but maybe the contrast and brilliance have been turned up to eleven in places.

When you were in K???? I remember taking you along the road and through a field to go and look at the River A????, which flows down from F???? village to where the river joins the larger River D???? in K???? town. 

Every year, when I cut the hedge which forms the boundary of my place, I have to trek along the road and then back through the field, so I can inspect and cut the back of my own hedge. It's all a bit of a nuisance. The hedge itself is Leylandii and somewhere inside of that is a chain-link fence supported on concrete posts. As I'm sure someone must have said, sometime, "it ain't going anywhere". Fortunately, I took the growing heads off the plants shortly after we moved in, so it’s not going to get out of control. Now I wish that the people who built the house had used something other than Leylandii, because it's too vigorous, but I'm not complaining because it’s attractive and maintenance free apart from once a year. 

Last year, I cut the inside and top of the hedge and had got to the stage of thinking about going round to the back. Cutting my hedge takes several days, so the job can spread over weeks. For some reason, I cut a little deeper into the hedge than I do usually in one back corner, and I noticed that the hedge growth was a little less dense there than normal. I poked around a bit more and found that the posts for the chain-link fence had been arranged in such a way that they formed a gateway inside the hedge.

This potential gateway was intriguing, so I showed it to Noreen and said that I thought it would be practical to make a gateway out into the field. The effort of creating the gateway would make the exercise of cutting the back of the hedge a whole lot simpler for the current  year and all future years (no need to walk a hundred yards along a busy road and back through the field). Noreen agreed, and a day or so later I had a gateway. 

I think the background story of my gateway is that when my house was being built, the builders constructed the gateway for access. They even put a threshold sill stone in place. When they were finished with the house, the builders filled the gap with an separate bit of fencing and planted the hedge, which over time obscured the potential gap.

A little more work, and I had constructed a little wicket gate to fit the gap. I can even point to evidence of the gate being completed on 25th August last year. Gate construction was made easier by having square upright concrete posts to work to. Not only is the gate easy to open and close, but it is invisible from both my garden and from the field! From my garden it is camouflaged by a piece of trellis covered by plastic pretend hedge, and from the other direction it exits into a wooded field boundary and is invisible from the field itself. So, now I had a hidden, secure gateway between my garden and the field beyond. It’s the sort of thing children love (and that includes children of advancing years).

The gateway served its intended purpose in simplifying the maintenance of my hedge, but it gave more. Now I have the gateway, I'm in the habit of walking down to the river, typically once a week. The distance is 150 metres as the crow flies or 350 metres around the perimeter of the field (which is the way I go, 'cos I'm good). 

Nobody would describe my place as urban and to call it suburban would be a positive insult, but access to the river takes rural to a new level. All you can hear on the other side of the hedge are natural sounds and the gentle whispering of traffic on the distant road. 

It really is peaceful down by the river. Having access to the river is a great improvement to my amenities.  Come the summer, I may spend a bit more time down there. My neighbours don't mind (because they walk their dogs down by the river), and I don't think the person farming the field will ever know!

When I’m walking around the field something strange happens. The atmosphere changes and everything becomes much quieter. The sounds of traffic from the road cease completely. This always happens in the same place. The effect does not change with the weather, in sunshine or drizzle, the same peace descends. The silence is welcoming, waiting to be filled by the sounds of the river. 

When I reach the river the banks are clothed by mature native trees and beyond the margin on the far bank there is a dark plantation of commercial conifers. Upstream there is short length of rapids and downstream the river broadens and becomes much quieter. On the opposite bank a tree trails a dead limb into the water. When the river is high this branch is dragged forward with the current and flicks back when the tension overcomes the water. The motion is repeated rhythmically. The atmosphere is quiet except for the sound of water, no houses are visible, not even my own, which is only 150 metres away. I am in another dimension, separate to, and completely insulated from, the modern world. Every time I go there I pass through a hidden portal and traverse a zone of silence and when I return the experience is reversed.

I’m afraid there is a prosaic explanation to my inter-dimensional portal. The field has an uneven slope between my house and the river. The steeper slope in the middle means that when I'm at the river the houses are hidden and all the sound from the road passes above my head. Whatever you may think, unnaturally, I choose to ignore the obvious and continue to visit my magical realm via a hidden gateway and barrier of silence.

4th February 2023

Letter to Carol - Michael O'Conner

 Hello Carol, Happy New Year! I hope you and yours are keeping well.

As you can see, I've survived the festive season. I've eaten too much, drank too much (not too, too much) and not taken sufficient exercise, but I feel good. Siobhan and Margaret returned to base, so all four of us were there for an extended week. 

I cooked Christmas dinner. The frozen "three-bird-roast" took 3 hours to cook. That seems like a lot of work but actually it really wasn't; it was just a case of following the timetable I'd written out for myself, doing stuff and doing particular things when the alarm on my phone went off. There was plenty of time to do other things as well. 

As a family, we seem to have moved away from large expensive presents towards lots of small and sometimes silly things. There seems no point at all in exchanging vouchers. I do give Siobhan and Margaret (small) quantities of cash but that's different to me. There are lots of sweeties and biscuits as well! And chocolates!

I spent a fair amount of time over the holiday scanning photos and documents from the laundry box I told you about. Remember my brother James, the little boy I showed you some photos of? I've found another photo of him. I know I'm biased, and that the emotional associations will sway my judgement as well, but he was a handsome boy. 

One of the advantages of scanning things is that it makes it possible to zoom in on details and that can provide additional information: things like, two photos with the same background were probably taken at the same time. I've been constructing time-lines for the various characters in the story (My mother Margaret, her husband Alastair, James and my sister Catherine). Little details are coming to light and the story is taking on much more depth. The outline I told you was mostly correct, but even in a couple of months there is now so much more: some of it would suit a Boys' Own adventure, perhaps written by John Buchan, and some would suit a romance in a women's magazine, maybe by Barbara Cartland but honestly I've never read any of her work - maybe I should. I hope I can do the story, and my relatives justice.

Talking of stories, here's a sort-of "meta story". Cycling home from the surgery today, I stopped to exchange greetings with an acquaintence, Michael O'Conner. I am cycling home and Michael is walking home from tending to some horses he looks after. He walks the road twice a day, in the morning and in the evening, rain or shine. If I am cycling I stop and talk with him, if I am driving, heading in the right direction and especially if it is raining, I will give him a lift. Somehow, our meeting like this seems particularly Irish, or Scottish or "country". 

Michael will be a little younger than me, probably in his 50's. He is separated or divorced from a wife and has (at least) a daughter and one or two grandchildren. I know where he lives and where he is from (Castlemagner). His untidy hair is blonde which has turned to white and he's soft spoken. He wears heavy boots and a dirty black jacket. His face is weather-beaten and ruddy with a strawberry nose and hooded eyes. I would guess that he is a heavy drinker, quite possibly an alcoholic. I think he would be a handful if he was drunk. Honestly, if you saw him, I think you would avoid him (and in general, you might be right). Despite any of that, he is considered "reliable" and he looks after expensive horses. Once, when it was convenient for us both, he took be to see a mare who was in foal.

Michael and I are not friends but we are friendly to one another. We are an ill-matched pair. We would not meet socially but we meet on the road and exchange greetings and stories. I think our meetings serve some purpose but I do not know what it is: one for psychologists, sociologists and philosophers.

Must go. Got to have some sort of lunch before I collect my daughters from Cork.

Keep well!

Tom        

My response to a piece on "The Break-up of Russia"

 I watched the video about "The Break-up of Russia" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYZqNpLQb8). Interesting. I agree with his conclusions, but for very different reasons. His reasoning seems to be that Russia will fall apart because of racial tensions. My reasoning is that Russia will fall apart for economic reasons and because of lack of cohesion.

Preable to my explanation:

As I say to people: Modern Russia IS NOT The Soviet Union WAS NOT The Russian Empire. There is obviously continuity between them but they are not (and will not become) the same. This may be one of Putin's major mistakes.

A metaphor: The fire brigade will point out that a fire needs three things: fuel, oxidant and a source of ignition. You need all three to have a fire.

Another metaphor: In a lot of things you get a balance between opposing forces. There can be an attractive force and a repulsive force. When one changes then the balance point changes.

I'm going to use Wikipedia as my sole source. Not entirely reliable but it's a starting point.

Introduction - The problem:

OK. During Soviet times there was a strong cohesive force which bound the SU together. Like it or not, many of the ordinary people _believed_ in the Communist Party. Soviet Communism was a religion. Many thought that though life was hard now, they were building a better tomorrow, if not for themselves, then for their children or grandchildren. They may have been deluded but they believed it. This belief helped bind the constituent republics and the various ethnic groups.

The Russian Empire was expanding imperial colonialism. As far as the colonists were concerned they were expanding into terra nullus, empty space. The russians expanded east until they encountered China or the Japanese coming the other way. Any cohesion was provided by racism and force. Those times are mostly gone.  

The ideological foundations of the SU have vanished. The binding force of Communism has gone. Putin has not replaced it with anything equivalent, and certainly not with anything which has the same power. There is no "Putinism". I don't think he has attempted to create a personality cult like Stalin; if he has, then he has failed. Though maybe even with the current mess, I still think he has a more powerful image than many Western leaders. The most he seems to have created (in this respect) is a particular kind of nationalism. And the thing is, that his "nationalism" is focused on Russia west of the Urals. It may have a binding effect there, but it has a different effect elsewhere.

Observation:

The more I learn about Russia and the ex-Soviet states the less I know. Until recently (last couple of years) I viewed Russia East of the Urals as "Siberia". That's mistaken, at least in part. Learning about Russia is like a weird lucky dip. You never know what you are going to find, and when you find it, you never know whether it is representative or not.

Russia East of the Urals

Russia is divided up in all sorts of different ways. This is one of those cases where "the more I learn the less I know". There are lots of different subdivisions (Oblasts, Krais, Okrugs, Riyons and nominally independent Republics), all within Russia. The arrangements are not strictly hierarchical either. There are all sorts of anomalies and exceptions. If you want an example of strangeness, look at "The Jewish Autonomous Okrug" (part of the Far Eastern Federal District)

The arrangement I am going to reference is "Federal Districts": 

Federal Districts are enormous - but notice how the Western ones are smaller.

The Far East 

Specifically I am going to look at the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD): 

Some numbers:

• Area: 7 million km2
• Population: 8.4 million
• Population density: 1.2 /km2 = 3.1 people per square mile!

Compare that with the EU (not for political reasons, just size and diversity)

• Area: 4.2 million km2
• Population: 447 million
• Population density: 106 /km2

The population of the island of Ireland is 6.6 million, or if you prefer, the population of Greater London is 8.9 million.

The FEFD is 1.5 to twice the area of the EU. The EU has 100 times the population density of FEFD!

The population of the FEFD is comparable with the island of Ireland or Greater London!

Just like everywhere else, the population of the FEFD is concentrated in cities. I haven't found any useful figures for the how it is divided but I can imagine what effect that has on the population density of the hinterland.

Now look at the Ethnic composition of the population of the FEFD. All these "ethnicity" figures suffer from the problem that the numbers for the minorities get fragmented. In most cases I think it is appropriate to consider "Russians versus the rest" or maybe "Russians+Western SU Republics versus the rest". 

However you cut it, 78% of the FEFD identify as Russian!

My interpretation of this is that before the settlers came in the 16th to 19th Century this was a sparcely populated area with nomadic or semi-settled peoples. "Russians" (and other groups) colonised the FEFD. Often they had no choice. They overlaid the indigeneous populations. Compare this to British colonisation of USA/Canada/Australia/NZ. If this is the case, then the indigenous peoples will be mostly in the hinterland.

There may be ethnic tensions in parts of Russia, but ethnic independence is not going to drive a separatist movement in FEFD.

I don't know what the indigenous groups want, but my belief is that many of them would like access to the benefits of modern life, some want to migrate to the cities and others would just like to be left alone. They may be discontented but they will not revolt. 

The non-Russian, non-indigenous people probably feel ties towards their ancestral homes but they are in a (very small) minority. Again, they may be discontented but they will not revolt, and if they did, they would not be effective.

Now let's look at population change.

One specific component of the FEFD is Primorsky Krai (literally "Seaside" Krai).

Population: 2 million and is declining. But look at the map and compare the area of PK with that of FEFD.

The population is 92% ethnic Russian. Once again, _Ethnic_ independence is not going to drive separatism.

The human fertility rate is low between 1.5 and 1.7 for period between 2009 and 2016.

My extrapolation from these figures is that the population of PK will decline to between 1.5 and 1.7 million in 25 years (1 generation), say 2050 (I'm assuming that a fertility rate of 2 is necessary to maintain population).

Most of the Russian population of the Far East are descendants of people who arrived there in the past 150 years. Many were exiles, prisoners, were forcibly relocated or transferred to support Soviet mega-projects which are now no longer relevant. These are people who may feel "Russian" but have reasons to distrust the centre.

My perception is that there is dissatisfaction among the Russian population in the Far East and Siberia with how they are treated compared by "the centre" (the Moscow - St Petersburg axis). I have anecdotal evidence for this, but it is self-selecting and therefore biased.

Economy

The economy of the Far East and Siberia is based on extractive industries (mining and forestry) and heavy manufacturing. Infrastructure (roads and railways) is poor. Energy is provided largely by fossil fuels, especially coal. The Far East or maybe Primorsky Krai have huge natural resources but very sparse population.

The Triggering Spark:

I have seen reports that Putin is favouring using troops from Siberia and the Far East in Ukraine. That is to say - he is favouring the Moscow - St Petersburg region. This is one of several places where his policies are, shall we say, "confused". On the one hand he describes Ukrainians as "brothers" but then the actions on the ground could be designed to alienate ethnic Russians in Ukraine. If he is using troops from Siberia, and they are suffering badly, then that will create a groundswell of disaffection. Here is an example from a town close to Novosibirsk - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/74th_Separate_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Brigade#2022_invasion_of_Ukraine      

Conclusion:

My conclusion is that there is enough potential in the Soviet Far East to "drive it outwards" and not enough cohesive force to retain it and "pull it towards the centre (Moscow)". Moscow does not have the power to retain control of the Far East by force, but the population of the Far East retain a cultural and sentimental attachment to "Greater Russia".

The conflict in Ukraine may provide a further outward force driving opinion in Siberia and the Far East away from the centre.

China would benefit from closer relations with the Far East, but does not need to subdue it. Instead of a "revolution" or "withdrawal" of the Far East (in whatever form) from the Russian Federation, I would suggest that a "transfer of emphasis" is more likely. The Far East and Siberia may develop stronger economic ties with China (ignoring Moscow) while still claiming to be part of the political structure called the Russian Federation. You could argue that some of this was happening before the Ukraine crisis and that it will simply continue with China ignoring sanctions, possibly by using North Korea as a proxy.      

This, that, travels and cats.

The fancy took me to write a few notes, and you're one of them.

We've all survived the last couple of years without suffering significant harm. I'm troubled by events in Ukraine and limit how much I follow things.

I've just completed my one-year course at the local technical college - it was computer-related and I hope to put some of what I learned to use. The exams are over and I await the results. The score doesn't really matter to me though. I know what I learned. 

I don't remember where we left off conversations but we've acquired a new kitten (called Luna, should probably be Luna(tic)), and continue to care for a feral tomcat we call Scrawny. 

When we first encountered Scrawny he was, well, Scrawny. He was thin, his fur was thin and bedraggled and he wouldn't let anyone approach him. Scrawny is scrawny no longer. He will let Siobhan pet him and he will sometimes come into the house, but is very quick to dash out again too.

Luna, is always scampering about. She is about 6 months old and has recently been neutered. We plan to let her out into the garden when the fur has grown back over the scar area. From time to time she ambushes me: I will be doing something and suddenly experience a sharp pain in my leg (claws digging in). She sometimes climbs up and sits on my shoulder, imagine Long John Silver with the parrot but with everyone involved having more limbs!

Now that I've got my course out of the way, I'm thinking about making a trip over to the UK. I have some business which it would be easier and pleasanter to do in person. I have no plans at present but am thinking about what I want to do. Are you "receiving visitors" if I happen to be in your part of the world?

26th May 2022

Pressing the reset button - May 2022

 For my own reasons I've decided I may be using this blog again. Nice to see that it's still here and still functioning.

Some of this may be factual, some may be fiction. I'm going to do a limited amount of self-censorship and also rely on "security by obscurity".

Cheers, Tom

26th May 2022