The Banishing of Huginn

I'm blessed by having many wild birds around my house. There are all sorts of birds, and as I live here longer, I am getting better at identifying the different species. There are wrens, wagtails, great tits and brave little robins; pigeons, blackbirds and magpies in various numbers from ominous one, through joy to silver, gold and dark secrets. And then there are the corvids: hooded crows, like capuchin monks and rooks, loads and loads of rooks. I lump them together as "crows". The rooks roost in the oaks and return home for sunset, squabbling as they settle for the night. 

My wife was in the habit of feeding the birds in the early evening. She would scatter seed and shattered fat-balls on the back lawn. You can't feed the smaller birds without feeding the crows, who are fiercely intelligent. A sentinel or two would be stationed on the ridge of the garage roof and within seconds of food being scattered on the ground, the sky would darken and the ground covered with raucous family groups: this year's spoiled fledglings demanding to be fed by over-tolerant parents scarcely larger than themselves.

One afternoon in early autumn, I was standing at the back door observing the crows. Many were picking away at the lawn, looking for seeds or scraps they had missed earlier. A few were strutting about, proudly grasping an acorn in their beak. When they found what seemed to them a suitable spot, they would put the nut down carefully, peck a hole, place the acorn in the hole and cover it up. They would then turn away, apparently satisfied with their work. I can't see the point myself, but I understand how oaks are planted.

I had some minor tasks to do, so I went outside and before I started I paused for a moment and surveyed the crows. They have grown used to me and after a brief fluttering of wings they settled back to their business of gleaning.

Suddenly, a single rook separated from the group and flew straight towards me. I stood my ground. I don't claim bravery, rather the slow responses of advancing years. The bird turned upwards, its wings spread and its feet extended towards me. It alighted on my right shoulder. I felt its weight shift as it adjusted its position and I turned towards it. I found myself face to face (or maybe nose to beak) with the bird. It seemed to be a juvenile, with a black beak, rather than the boney grey of an adult. As it turned its head from side to side I was looking into its eyes. I was entranced, frozen as if in the presence of great power. The bird was not hostile, instead it projected calm, but uncaring interest, a remote intelligence observing and noting my actions. Unbidden, I extended my right arm, until it was horizontal, my hand clenched in a loose fist. The bird walked calmly along my arm until it was perched on my hand. Its feet were scaly and cool. I put my left hand, palm upwards, in front of it and it reached across and gently gripped my fingers and the skin of my palm. This was not an aggressive act, not a peck, just a gentle caress and I could feel the serrations of his beak.

For the rest of the day, and the whole of the following day, I had a new companion. I decided "he" was a boy (though I cannot tell the difference, and it matters only to other rooks) and named him Huginn. He would come to me when I was outside, perch on my shoulder and fist and eat from my left hand. He took cat food from a small saucer I held in my hand and even half a hard-boiled egg directly from my palm.

On the third day he was gone: no more Huginn. There was no sign of him. He had disappeared without leaving a trace except in my memory, returned to the emptiness from whence he came. I missed him as one would expect to miss such a companion. I still miss him and mark his absence. Stories of talking birds and magical familiars now seem much more real and much more likely than they once did. Experience is a powerful tutor. 

The worldly explanation is that Huginn was probably a chick from the previous year. He had "imprinted" on one of the women who work at the garden centre which is associated with the COPE (Roughly the Irish equivalent of SCOPE) across the road. As he had become more confident he had begun venturing further afield and had found me. The reason he had disappeared was that unfortunately he had begun to become a nuisance at the Garden Centre, disturbing customers and the residents at the COPE home. As a consequence he had been tempted into a cage and then "re-homed" some distance away. We all hope that he is happy and will eventually find a mate.

Of course, there could be another explanation, one which if I'm honest, I rather prefer. In Norse and Germanic mythology Odin, the chief of the gods, who traded one eye for wisdom, was served by two ravens known as Huginn and Muninn (memory and thought) who brought him news of all they had seen in the world. There seems to have been uncertainty or dispute about whether Huginn and Muninn were simply messengers or whether they were extensions of Odin himself. Whichever they were, I like to imagine that I had an encounter with the numinous, the divine, and that Huginn has returned to Odin with the message that I had been set a test (which I do not fully understand) and that my response had been satisfactory. 

(I originally called this "The Murder and the Banishing of Huginn", to use the collective noun for a group of crows. When I read it, I thought it was a piece of unworthy click-bait!)

[Original Events: 13th and 14th July 2025]

[Date: 6th October 2025]                

Start to 2025 was snow joke!

 Hi J, How are you keeping? Drop me a note (even if it's only a NAK) to reassure me that you are still functioning OK, because... I've had an interesting year so far. That would be "interesting" in the ancient Chinese sense, but not as interesting as the modern Californian sense. We're all fine and completely unharmed.

Christmas and the New Year themselves were the normal overeating and a little bit of drinking by me.

The problems were all caused by the New Year freeze. The first issue was that we had getting on for 6 inches of snow (btw I found a website called topographic-map.com from which I can say with a fair degree of confidence that my altitude is 97m and Halt Close is 217m). You probably had snow as well.

S was down in Cork and the rest of us were in K. S didn't fancy getting the bus back and neither N nor I fancied driving down to Cork in the snow, so everyone stayed where they were in the warm. Then we had a power cut which lasted 24 hours (not so unusual for me. Lots of overhead wires). We have an open fire so we could keep one room warm and we had plenty of bread etc for sarnies. We just reverted to the Dark Ages and went to bed early. The only thing I really missed was a hot drink. And after the power was restored the weather got colder and our water supply froze up. Not a burst pipe, but the supply branch from the main to the house is too shallow and it freezes sometimes (I don't know how deep it actually is, just "not deep enough"). The last time for me was 2010. Of course, while all this was happening, the roads weren't really driveable. First problem was me driveway. I cleared that and got both N's and my cars towards the front of the house. I only dug S's out yesterday (Saturday). She's still down in Cork. I walked to town on a couple of days to top up with essential-essentials: bread, marge, milk. It wasn't too bad a trip. I have proper equipment and a rucksack. One day I got a lift there and back!

Still the thaw is with us and we're getting back to normal.

How was it all for you?

And for your amusement, It seems that my idea of "The Vital Spark"/"The Electric Coaster" is not so mad after all. Behold the electric cruise ship:     

https://www.hurtigruten.com/en/about-us/sustainability/worlds-most-energy-efficient-cruise-ship

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/cruises/eco-conscious-cruise-ship-future/

I seem to be running one or two years ahead of the herd!

Flying not Floating

 

Flying not Floating

The simplest formula for calculating lift that I can find is:

 ρ v² S C_L

Where:

·         L is the lift force

·         ρ is the fluid density – originally of “air”

·         v is the velocity or “true airspeed”

·         S is the planform (projected) wing area

·         C_L is the lift coefficient at the desired angle of attack, Mach Number and Reynolds Number

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lift_(force)

(The representation of the equation got mangled and I can't be bothered to fix it)

Typical value of C_L lift coefficient is 1.5

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/lift-coefficient

If I assume that I want Lift force equal to the downward force, then that means the Lift I require is (Mass * local Gravity).

Do some algebra and rearrange the equation to get (looks like super and sub-scripts don’t work properly in equations with fractions):

The first term is a constant for the body in question, the second term is the inverse of the density and the third term is the inverse square of the “airspeed” velocity. Everything varies as you would expect.

Physical Properties on various bodies:

Body:	Gravity (m/s2)	Atm Density (kg/m3):	Lift for 1 kg (N):	Temp (deg C):	Atm Pressure (Bar):	Notes:
Venus	8.87	65	8.87	464	92
Earth (Air)	9.81	1.2	9.81	20	1	*
Earth (Water)	9.81	1000	9.81	20	1	*
Mars	3.72	0.020	3.72	-63	0.06
Jupiter	24.8	1.2	24.8	-70	10	*
Saturn	10.44	1.2	10.44	-139	1	*
Titan	1.35	53	1.35	-179	1.5

 

Notes:

(*)          Atmospheric density on a gas giant can be anything you choose it to be, depending on altitude/depth.

Calculate the “factor” for all the different bodies

Body:	L/CL:	Inverse Density:	“Factor”:
Venus	5.91	0.154	0.910
Earth (Air)	6.54	0.83
Earth (Water)	6.54	0.001
Mars	2.48	50
Jupiter	16.53	0.83
Saturn	6.96	0.83
Titan	0.90	0.94

 

 (Originally 17th July 2021)

My response to a piece on "The Break-up of Russia"

 I watched the video about "The Break-up of Russia" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYZqNpLQb8). Interesting. I agree with his conclusions, but for very different reasons. His reasoning seems to be that Russia will fall apart because of racial tensions. My reasoning is that Russia will fall apart for economic reasons and because of lack of cohesion.

Preable to my explanation:

As I say to people: Modern Russia IS NOT The Soviet Union WAS NOT The Russian Empire. There is obviously continuity between them but they are not (and will not become) the same. This may be one of Putin's major mistakes.

A metaphor: The fire brigade will point out that a fire needs three things: fuel, oxidant and a source of ignition. You need all three to have a fire.

Another metaphor: In a lot of things you get a balance between opposing forces. There can be an attractive force and a repulsive force. When one changes then the balance point changes.

I'm going to use Wikipedia as my sole source. Not entirely reliable but it's a starting point.

Introduction - The problem:

OK. During Soviet times there was a strong cohesive force which bound the SU together. Like it or not, many of the ordinary people _believed_ in the Communist Party. Soviet Communism was a religion. Many thought that though life was hard now, they were building a better tomorrow, if not for themselves, then for their children or grandchildren. They may have been deluded but they believed it. This belief helped bind the constituent republics and the various ethnic groups.

The Russian Empire was expanding imperial colonialism. As far as the colonists were concerned they were expanding into terra nullus, empty space. The russians expanded east until they encountered China or the Japanese coming the other way. Any cohesion was provided by racism and force. Those times are mostly gone.  

The ideological foundations of the SU have vanished. The binding force of Communism has gone. Putin has not replaced it with anything equivalent, and certainly not with anything which has the same power. There is no "Putinism". I don't think he has attempted to create a personality cult like Stalin; if he has, then he has failed. Though maybe even with the current mess, I still think he has a more powerful image than many Western leaders. The most he seems to have created (in this respect) is a particular kind of nationalism. And the thing is, that his "nationalism" is focused on Russia west of the Urals. It may have a binding effect there, but it has a different effect elsewhere.

Observation:

The more I learn about Russia and the ex-Soviet states the less I know. Until recently (last couple of years) I viewed Russia East of the Urals as "Siberia". That's mistaken, at least in part. Learning about Russia is like a weird lucky dip. You never know what you are going to find, and when you find it, you never know whether it is representative or not.

Russia East of the Urals

Russia is divided up in all sorts of different ways. This is one of those cases where "the more I learn the less I know". There are lots of different subdivisions (Oblasts, Krais, Okrugs, Riyons and nominally independent Republics), all within Russia. The arrangements are not strictly hierarchical either. There are all sorts of anomalies and exceptions. If you want an example of strangeness, look at "The Jewish Autonomous Okrug" (part of the Far Eastern Federal District)

The arrangement I am going to reference is "Federal Districts": 

Federal Districts are enormous - but notice how the Western ones are smaller.

The Far East 

Specifically I am going to look at the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD): 

Some numbers:

• Area: 7 million km2
• Population: 8.4 million
• Population density: 1.2 /km2 = 3.1 people per square mile!

Compare that with the EU (not for political reasons, just size and diversity)

• Area: 4.2 million km2
• Population: 447 million
• Population density: 106 /km2

The population of the island of Ireland is 6.6 million, or if you prefer, the population of Greater London is 8.9 million.

The FEFD is 1.5 to twice the area of the EU. The EU has 100 times the population density of FEFD!

The population of the FEFD is comparable with the island of Ireland or Greater London!

Just like everywhere else, the population of the FEFD is concentrated in cities. I haven't found any useful figures for the how it is divided but I can imagine what effect that has on the population density of the hinterland.

Now look at the Ethnic composition of the population of the FEFD. All these "ethnicity" figures suffer from the problem that the numbers for the minorities get fragmented. In most cases I think it is appropriate to consider "Russians versus the rest" or maybe "Russians+Western SU Republics versus the rest". 

However you cut it, 78% of the FEFD identify as Russian!

My interpretation of this is that before the settlers came in the 16th to 19th Century this was a sparcely populated area with nomadic or semi-settled peoples. "Russians" (and other groups) colonised the FEFD. Often they had no choice. They overlaid the indigeneous populations. Compare this to British colonisation of USA/Canada/Australia/NZ. If this is the case, then the indigenous peoples will be mostly in the hinterland.

There may be ethnic tensions in parts of Russia, but ethnic independence is not going to drive a separatist movement in FEFD.

I don't know what the indigenous groups want, but my belief is that many of them would like access to the benefits of modern life, some want to migrate to the cities and others would just like to be left alone. They may be discontented but they will not revolt. 

The non-Russian, non-indigenous people probably feel ties towards their ancestral homes but they are in a (very small) minority. Again, they may be discontented but they will not revolt, and if they did, they would not be effective.

Now let's look at population change.

One specific component of the FEFD is Primorsky Krai (literally "Seaside" Krai).

Population: 2 million and is declining. But look at the map and compare the area of PK with that of FEFD.

The population is 92% ethnic Russian. Once again, _Ethnic_ independence is not going to drive separatism.

The human fertility rate is low between 1.5 and 1.7 for period between 2009 and 2016.

My extrapolation from these figures is that the population of PK will decline to between 1.5 and 1.7 million in 25 years (1 generation), say 2050 (I'm assuming that a fertility rate of 2 is necessary to maintain population).

Most of the Russian population of the Far East are descendants of people who arrived there in the past 150 years. Many were exiles, prisoners, were forcibly relocated or transferred to support Soviet mega-projects which are now no longer relevant. These are people who may feel "Russian" but have reasons to distrust the centre.

My perception is that there is dissatisfaction among the Russian population in the Far East and Siberia with how they are treated compared by "the centre" (the Moscow - St Petersburg axis). I have anecdotal evidence for this, but it is self-selecting and therefore biased.

Economy

The economy of the Far East and Siberia is based on extractive industries (mining and forestry) and heavy manufacturing. Infrastructure (roads and railways) is poor. Energy is provided largely by fossil fuels, especially coal. The Far East or maybe Primorsky Krai have huge natural resources but very sparse population.

The Triggering Spark:

I have seen reports that Putin is favouring using troops from Siberia and the Far East in Ukraine. That is to say - he is favouring the Moscow - St Petersburg region. This is one of several places where his policies are, shall we say, "confused". On the one hand he describes Ukrainians as "brothers" but then the actions on the ground could be designed to alienate ethnic Russians in Ukraine. If he is using troops from Siberia, and they are suffering badly, then that will create a groundswell of disaffection. Here is an example from a town close to Novosibirsk - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/74th_Separate_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Brigade#2022_invasion_of_Ukraine      

Conclusion:

My conclusion is that there is enough potential in the Soviet Far East to "drive it outwards" and not enough cohesive force to retain it and "pull it towards the centre (Moscow)". Moscow does not have the power to retain control of the Far East by force, but the population of the Far East retain a cultural and sentimental attachment to "Greater Russia".

The conflict in Ukraine may provide a further outward force driving opinion in Siberia and the Far East away from the centre.

China would benefit from closer relations with the Far East, but does not need to subdue it. Instead of a "revolution" or "withdrawal" of the Far East (in whatever form) from the Russian Federation, I would suggest that a "transfer of emphasis" is more likely. The Far East and Siberia may develop stronger economic ties with China (ignoring Moscow) while still claiming to be part of the political structure called the Russian Federation. You could argue that some of this was happening before the Ukraine crisis and that it will simply continue with China ignoring sanctions, possibly by using North Korea as a proxy.